2018 Notre Dame Opponent Preview: Vanderbilt
Judging a football schedule in the preseason cannot be based too much off of what happened the year prior.
All one has to do is look at the roller-coaster tendencies of Notre Dame the past 20-plus years — from 9-3, 5-7, 9-3, 5-6, 10-3 and 5-7 in 1998-2003 ... to 10-3 and 3-9 in 2006-07 ... to 10-3, 4-8 and 10-3 again the past three campaigns.
When evaluating and ranking Notre Dame’s 2018 opponents, their recent history does factor in, but not as much as:
• Overall personnel/talent, including coaching.
• Returning experience.
• Timing of the game (after a bye week or following a marquee opponent).
• Where the game is played/intangibles.
In counting down the 12 Fighting Irish foes, we have the third game of the 2018 season at No. 11, the week after hosting Ball State, which was No. 12.
Vanderbilt — Sept. 15
Series Record: Notre Dame leads, 2-0.
Most Recent Meeting: The two teams had a home-and-home in 1995-96 . In the Sept. 5, 1996 Thursday night opener at Vanderbilt, the No. 6-ranked Fighting Irish rallied in the fourth quarter for a 14-7 win in what would be head coach Lou Holtz’s final season.
A year earlier at Notre Dame it easily dispatched the Commodores 41-0 when Bob Davie was named the acting coach in the game after Holtz underwent neck surgery earlier in the week.
Vanderbilt’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 49 (2014), No. 47 (2015) No. 59 (2016), No. 57 (2017), No. 42 (2018)
Notre Dame’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 11 (2014), No. 11 (2015), No. 13 (2016), No. 13 (2017), No. 11 (2018)
2017 Record/Summary: 5-7
Similar to Ball State, which started 2-1 before losing its last nine games, the Commodores came out of the non-conference-gate with a 3-0 start, easily whipping Middle Tennessee (28-6), Alabama A&M (42-0) and posting a quality win at home versus Kansas State (14-7) … and then SEC reality set in.
Conference play commenced with a 59-0 home loss to Alabama, and the defense also would get shattered in defeats against Georgia (45-14), Ole Miss (57-35) and so-so Kentucky (44-21) and Missouri (45-17), with the latter two also at home.
The Commodores opened 0-7 in the SEC (it would finish 4-0 outside the conference with a victory versus Western Kentucky) before closing the year with a 42-24 victory at Tennessee, which was an 0-8 shambles in the league at the end of the season.
2018 Outlook
Like Ball State in its division in the MAC, Vanderbilt is projected to finish last in the seven-team SEC East, which does not bode well for fifth-year head coach Derek Mason (he coached at Stanford on defense from 2010-13, the last two as coordinator), who was 3-9, 4-8, 6-7 and 5-7 his first four seasons (18-31 overall).
What makes it worse is his predecessor, James Franklin (now at Penn State), finished 9-4 and in the Associated Press top 25 in both 2012 and 2013, an unprecedented feat in the football team’s history.
Exacerbating it even more is that Mason was quoted in the Street & Smith 2018 Preview that, “This group, for the first time, is made up only of guys I have recruited. This team is totally me.”
We have always considered it a red flag when any coach — particularly one likely on the hot seat — starts discussing the value of “his recruits” over what had been there previously. We have found it to be generally a final vestige of desperation.
Four starters return on a defense that allowed 43.3 points per game during a 1-7 season in the SEC, led by outside linebacker Charles Wright’s nine sacks. Mason is relinquishing defensive play-calling duties to new coordinator Jason Tarver, who held that post at Stanford in 2011, the Oakland Raiders from 2012-14 and was senior defensive assistant for the San Francisco 49ers from 2015-17.
The entire starting offensive line returns for quarterback Kyle Shurmur, whose 26 touchdown passes last season broke the single season school record that had been set way back in 1982.
With a veteran line and quarterback, the offense could keep the Commodores competitive, but the defense is laden with issues, despite Mason’s background on that side of the ball.
Will Notre Dame Be Favored, The Underdog, Or Is It A Toss-Up?
In its eight SEC contests last year Vanderbilt was outscored by an average of 21 points, or about three touchdowns per game. We could envision a similar point spread here (something like 38-17) with the Commodores needing to go on the road versus a projected top-15 team.
No SEC foe should be considered a “gimme” or taken lightly, but other than its glorious stretch under Franklin, Vanderbilt as an esteemed private research university with a football stadium that fits only 40,550 has been sort of the “black sheep” of the SEC when it comes to football prowess.
The mere fact that no return game by Notre Dame on Vanderbilt's home field is scheduled versus a Power 5 Conference team tells you something.
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