2018 Notre Dame Opponent Preview: Pittsburgh
Judging a football schedule in the preseason cannot be based too much off of what happened the year prior.
All one has to do is look at the roller-coaster tendencies of Notre Dame the past 20-plus years, from 9-3, 5-7, 9-3, 5-6, 10-3 and 5-7 during the 1998-2003 stretch, to 10-3 and 3-9 in 2006-07, to 10-3, 4-8, 10-3 the past three campaigns.
When evaluating and ranking Notre Dame’s 2018 opponents, the recent history does factor in, but not as much as:
• Overall personnel/talent.
• Returning experience.
• Timing of the game (after a bye week or following a marquee opponent).
• Where the game is played/intangibles.
At No. 9 in our countdown is Pittsburgh, behind No. 12 Ball State, No. 11 Vanderbilt and No. 10 Syracuse.
Pittsburgh — Oct. 13
Series Record: Notre Dame leads, 48-21-1.
Most Recent Meeting: On Nov. 7, 2015 at Heinz Field, Notre Dame built a 42-17 lead before Pitt tallied two touchdowns in the final five minutes to make the final score a more respectable looking 42-30. Irish quarterback DeShone Kizer was 19-of-26 passing for 262 yards and five touchdowns, and he ran for the sixth. Three of his scoring tosses were to Will Fuller (seven catches, 152 yards), while freshman Josh Adams’ 20 carries netted 147 yards.
Pitt’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 44 (2014), No. 65 (2015) No. 29 (2016), No. 38 (2017), No. 36 (2018)
Notre Dame’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 11 (2014), No. 11 (2015), No. 13 (2016), No. 13 (2017), No. 11 (2018)
2017 Record/Summary: 5-7
The disappointing third season under head coach Pat Narduzzi began by edging Youngstown State (28-21) before going 1-5 in the next six games. This included a 59-21 setback at home to Oklahoma State and a 27-24 defeat at Syracuse. The nadir was reached with a 34-31 loss at home to an injury ravaged North Carolina team that entered the contest 1-8 (lone win versus Old Dominion).
Pitt bounced back respectably in the final two games to finish 5-7. The Panthers fell three yards short from the goal line on the final play in a 20-14 loss at Virginia Tech, and then closed the year with a 24-14 upset of 10-0 and No. 2 Miami.
2018 Outlook
Narduzzi, who thrived as the defensive coordinator for Marc Dantonio at Michigan State, needs to see his program make a move after 8-5, 8-5 and 5-7 campaigns his first three seasons.
First, he has a veteran defense that returns nine starters, although it will have a new coordinator. After third-year defensive coordinator Josh Conklin accepted the head coaching position at Wofford, Narduzzi hired Randy Bates, who enters his 37th season of coaching, the past 12 as the linebackers coach at Northwestern. Bates inherits a veteran defense that returns its entire starting front seven from last season, led by linebacker Oluwaseun Idowu.
On offense, sophomore quarterback Kenny Pickett will be counted heavily on to uplift the unit. His first career start helped result in the aforementioned upset of Miami in last year’s finale when he passed for 193 yards and one score and rushed for 60 yards and two touchdowns.
Last year’s Panther offense had only a 23.9 scoring average — 101st in the country, and worst at Pitt since 2007.
Will Notre Dame Be Favored, The Underdog, Or Is It A Toss-Up?
Blueandgold.com football analyst Bryan Driskell told me the Panthers are lacking at the skill positions on offense, and also do not have the personnel to run the type of aggressive defense Narduzzi had at Michigan State, although he is still trying to force it. Those are the main reasons I reluctantly have Pitt rated this low, plus the fact that it is a home game for Notre Dame.
Nevertheless, this looms as my dark horse upset special in 2018, perhaps even more so than the Nov. 3 contest at Northwestern, for four reasons.
One, Pitt has a proclivity to play up or down to the level of its competition, with is what can make them dangerous. In 2016 it upset Big Ten champ Penn State and eventual national champ Clemson — in Death Valley no less. Last year it toppled No. 2 Miami, which made the defeats to 4-8 Syracuse and 3-9 North Carolina all the more frustrating for the Panthers.
Two, Notre Dame will be coming off back-to-back marquee games, first hosting Stanford (Sept. 29) and then traveling to Virginia Tech (Oct. 6). Being “up” three straight weeks can be a tall order.
Third, it is also mid-term exams week at Notre Dame, which can add to the degree of difficulty.
Finally, Pitt has a history of competing well against the Irish. In the 11 meetings between Notre Dame and Pitt since 2002, all but two were determined by one score or less, with one of them a 42-30 Irish victory in the most recent encounter (2015).
The Irish will be favored at home, and quite likely by double digits if they will be playing at their preseason top 10-15 level. However, there is enough evidence in Pitt’s past to suggest the potential of an upset.
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