2018 Notre Dame Opponent Preview: Ball State
Judging a football schedule in the preseason cannot be based too much off of what happened the year prior.
In 2016, Notre Dame was a preseason top-10 pick based on a No. 11 finish the year before and had what appeared to be a favorable schedule — yet finished 4-8. So last year it was not in the preseason top 25, and the schedule was deemed more treacherous because of the foibles from 2016. Yet in November Notre Dame was 8-1 and No. 3 in the College Football Playoff poll before posting a second 10-3 campaign and No. 11 finish in three years.
When evaluating and ranking Notre Dame’s 2018 opponents, the recent history does factor in, but not as much as:
• Overall personnel/talent.
• Returning experience.
• Timing of the game (after a bye week or following a marquee opponent).
• Where the game is played/intangibles.
In counting down the 12 Fighting Irish foes, from perceived weakest to strongest, the easiest selection was game 2 at home versus Ball State at No. 12.
Ball State — Sept. 8
Series Record: This is the first meeting between the two Indiana schools.
Ball State’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 95 (2014), not in top 100 (2015 and 2016), No. 87 (2017), not in top 100 (2018)
Notre Dame’s Rivals Class Rankings 2014-18: No. 11 (2014), No. 11 (2015), No. 13 (2016), No. 13 (2017), No. 11 (2018)
2017 Record/Summary: 2-10
The outset of the season looked promising. Ball State competed well at Big 10 opponent Illinois in the opener before losing 24-21, and then defeated UAB (51-31) and Tennessee Tech (28-13) for a 2-1 start.
Alas, the Cardinals concluded the year on a nine-game losing streak, which wasn’t quite as bad as UTEP (12) and Kansas (11). Especially mind-numbing was they lost their eight Mid-American Conference games by an average score of 48-12 — five times allowing at least 55 points in that span.
Among 129 Football Bowl Subdivision teams in 2017, Ball State finished 121st in scoring offense (17.9 points per game) and 124th in scoring defense (40.7 points per game), as bad a combination as one can find.
The good news is quarterback Riley Neal and running back James Gilbert, who rushed for 1,332 yards in 2016, are back after getting sidelined the final nine games of 2017 with injuries.
2018 Outlook
Under third-year head coach Mike Neu, the Cardinals are projected to finish last again in the six-team West Division of the Mid-American conference. The team that is projected to finish fifth by Street & Smith, Central Michigan, beat Ball State 56-9 in 2017, which sort of maps out the disparity.
With Neal and Gilbert back, Ball State should be more competitive — plus it had another 1,000-yard rusher last year in Caleb Hunter in place of Gilbert. Furthermore, wide receiver Justin Hall caught the most passes (78 for 801 yards) among any freshman in the country last year, thus earning ESPN.com Freshman All-American notice.
The defense was extremely young last year but still must replace its best player, end Anthony Winbush, a first-team All-MAC pick with his 11.5 sacks, 16.5 tackles for loss and five forced fumbles.
Will Notre Dame Be Favored, The Underdog, Or Is It A Toss-Up?
The game was scheduled to provide a breather, a la UMass in 2015 (62-24), Nevada in 2016 (39-10) and Miami (Ohio) last year (52-17). Future opponents who fit that same genre include New Mexico and Bowling Green in 2019, Western Michigan in 2020 and Toledo in 2021.
It would be difficult to envision the Irish anything less than a five-touchdown favorite in this one.
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