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Ian Book’s Lofty Early Heisman Odds Rare Air For Recent Irish Quarterbacks

By his designation, Ian Book’s inclusion on early Heisman odds lists is entirely expected. Anytime there is a third-year starting quarterback at Notre Dame when the Irish are consistently winning 10-plus games and nationally relevant, he will be included in offseason Heisman chatter. It may as well be an unwritten rule of such prognostications.

Add more context, like Book’s 38 total touchdowns against six interceptions, and his placement at No. 7 in BetOnline’s early Heisman odds, computes with basic logic.

There is, though, the matter of context within Notre Dame’s recent history and what it says about Book. His inclusion in Heisman conversations makes sense not only because of circumstance, but his own accomplishments. And, it’s lightly traveled territory for recent Notre Dame quarterbacks. Provided Book’s preseason Heisman odds don’t tumble from 20/1 and he avoids being leapfrogged, he will enter the season with arguably the best Heisman outlook for a Notre Dame quarterback since Brady Quinn in 2006.

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Notre Dame senior quarterback Ian Book against New Mexico in 2019
Early Vegas projections give Book 20/1 odds to win the Heisman Trophy. (Andris Visockis)

An extensive Google search revealed no Irish quarterback has started the season with one of the 10 best odds or better than 20/1 odds since Everett Golson in 2014. Before him, Quinn was considered the favorite for the award heading into his senior year. A season ago, Book was in the top 10 of earliest Heisman odds releases, but fell into the teens by the end of August.

Some other notable Notre Dame quarterback preseason Heisman odds:

2014: Golson (20/1, T-10th)

2015: Malik Zaire (33/1, T-14th)

2016: DeShone Kizer, Zaire (28/1, T-14th)

2017: Brandon Wimbush (60/1, 23rd)

2018: Wimbush (50/1, 23rd)

Book is the third Notre Dame quarterback to return for his third year as a starter this century. The others are Quinn and Jimmy Clausen. And entering season three as a starter, neither had anywhere near the preseason Heisman discussion around him that Book does now. Their prior seasons weren’t spent leading 10-win teams to the BCS or the College Football Playoff. Nor did either put up the numbers in the first two seasons that Book did.

A comparison of their first two full seasons as starters:

Quinn: 24 games, 26 TD, 25 INT, 50.8 completion percentage, 6.4 yards/pass, team record 11-13

Clausen: 23 games, 32 TD, 23 INT, 59.2 completion percentage, 6.5 yards/pass, team record 10-15

Book: 25 games, 53 TD, 13 INT, 63.7 completion percentage, 7.9 yards/pass, team record 23-3

Quinn was largely absent from the 2005 preseason Heisman discussion and Clausen not present in the 2009 conversation because Notre Dame had sub-.500 records the prior two seasons. In Quinn’s case, an improvement was expected in Charlie Weis’ first year, but the eventual top-10 finish was not. Not much was expected from Notre Dame in 2009, Clausen’s junior year. Notre Dame went 6-6 and Weis was fired.

In Book’s final season, though, Notre Dame is a borderline top-10 team in preseason polls. Winning at least 10 games is the expectation once again. With Book at the controls last year, Notre Dame averaged its most points per game since 2006, when Quinn finished third in the Heisman race.

Yet the season was often viewed through the lens of two offensive duds against Michigan and Georgia, the only games where Notre Dame didn’t eclipse 20 points. Book tossed two interceptions against the Bulldogs and completed 32 percent of his passes against the Wolverines. Going back a year, he was 17-for-34 passing in the 30-3 College Football Playoff loss to Clemson.

Book, despite single-season numbers on par with Quinn’s and Clausen’s final season and gaudier than Kizer’s, still has a perception that he’s simply good enough not to get benched. Those losses stand out as much as Book’s best moments do, perhaps because he doesn’t quite have a signature play, one that announced his arrival as a star. He ran for a touchdown with 29 seconds left to lift Notre Dame over Virginia Tech, but that was more a rescue from disaster than a stirring win over a top-tier team.

Finding a way to lead Notre Dame to a monumental win would help Book prove those odds a wise projection and find himself in New York for the Heisman ceremony. He has a chance, with traveling to Wisconsin in October and Notre Dame hosting likely preseason No. 1 Clemson in November.

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